Title: RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF FERTILITY POLICY ON
POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CHINA
Authors:
Li Lin
, Ru Zhang
, Weijian Zhang
, Yiru Wang
, Hui Zhang
Journal:
International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research (IJSSER)
ISSN: 2455-8834
Volume:
3
Issue:
6
Publication Date:
June 2018
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Li Lin1
, Ru Zhang2
, Weijian Zhang2
, Yiru Wang2
, Hui Zhang2 1Business Administration Department of International Business School, Jinan University, Zhuhai, China
2Finance Department of International Business School, Jinan University, Zhuhai, China
Correspondence: Ru Zhang, Finance Department of International Business School, Jinan University,
Qianshan Road 206#, Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, Post No. 519070, China.
MLA 8 Lin, Li, et al. "RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF FERTILITY POLICY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CHINA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 3, no. 6, June 2018, pp. 2550-2565, ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=174. Accessed 2018.
APA Lin, L., Zhang, R., Zhang, W., Wang, Y., & Zhang, H. (2018, June). RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF FERTILITY POLICY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CHINA. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 3(6), 2550-2565. Retrieved from ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=174
Chicago Lin, Li, Ru Zhang, Weijian Zhang, Yiru Wang, and Hui Zhang. "RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF FERTILITY POLICY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CHINA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 3, no. 6 (June 2018), 2550-2565. Accessed , 2018. ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=174.
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ABSTRACT:
In order to optimize the population structure facing the country, many countries have introduced
fertility policies, but the effects of the fertility policy on the population structure is abstract. The
purpose of this paper is to quantify the fertility policy on population structure by using Bayesian
theorem and Leslie model, especially the impact of population aging. Firstly, based on the
historical data and the Bayesian formula, the policy adjustment multiplier is obtained to
determine the fertility rate of each age under different fertility policies, thereby predicting the
total population size and population structure under different fertility policies. Then, taking the
China as an example, a comparative analysis of the total population and population structure of
China under the "Universal Two-Child" policy and "separate" policy in 2020-2030. Finally, the
results show that the influence of the birth policy on the population structure has a certain role, but
it takes a long time to be effective and cannot fundamentally solve the population problem.
The International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research Inviting Papers/Articles for Upcoming Issue Volume 11 No. (10) October 2026 .
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