International Journal of Social Science & Economic Research
Submit Paper

Title:
ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIES, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES, BI RATES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA

Authors:
Yusri Hazmi, Nazamuddin, Raja Masbar, Syukriy Abdullah

|| ||

1Yusri Hazmi, 2Nazamuddin, 2Raja Masbar, 2Syukriy Abdullah
1. PhD Student, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia
2. Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia

MLA 8
Hazmi, Yusri, et al. "ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIES, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES, BI RATES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 4, no. 3, Mar. 2019, pp. 2049-2074, ijsser.org/more2019.php?id=151. Accessed Mar. 2019.
APA
Hazmi, Y., Nazamuddin, Masbar, R., & Abdullah, S. (2019, March). ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIES, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES, BI RATES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 4(3), 2049-2074. Retrieved from ijsser.org/more2019.php?id=151
Chicago
Hazmi, Yusri, Nazamuddin, Raja Masbar, and Syukriy Abdullah. "ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIES, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES, BI RATES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 4, no. 3 (March 2019), 2049-2074. Accessed March, 2019. ijsser.org/more2019.php?id=151.

References

[1]. Adams, Ket. (2011). Government debt and optimal monetary and fiscal policy. European Economic Review Volume 55, Issue 1, January 2011, Pages 57-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2010.11.003
[2]. Siddique, and E. Selvanathan. (2016) The Impact of External Debt on Growth: Evidence from highly indebted poor countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38 (2016), p. 874894. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.03. 011
[3]. Baharumshah, at al., (2017). Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad? Journal of Policy Modeling Vol. 39, Issue 1, January-February 2017, Pages 99-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.jpolmod.2016.11.002
[4]. Balassone Fabrizio and Daniele Franco. (2000). Public Investment, the Stability Pact and the 'Golden Rule'. Fiscal Studies The Journal of Applied Public Economic. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2000.tb00023.
[5]. Belhocine and Dell'Erba. (2013). The impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Market Spread. IMF Working Paper. Fiscal Affairs Department.com. https://books.google.co.id
[6]. Blanchard, Olivier. (1990). Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries: Comment. NBER macroeconomics annual. Journals.uchicago.edu.
[7]. Boediono. (1990). Ekonomi Moneter. Edisi 3. Penerbit: BPFE Yogyakarta.
[8]. Boediono. (2004). Kebijakan Fiskal: Sekarang dan Selanjutnya, dalam Heru Subiyanto dan Singgih Riphat. Kebijakan Fiskal: Pemikiran, Konsep, dan Implementasi.
[9]. Buiter, W. H. (1985). Public Debt in the USA: How Much, How Bad, and Who Pays? NBER. Working Paper No. 4362. https://www.nber.org/ papers/w4362
[10]. Cuddington, T. Jhon and Urzua M. Carlos. (1989). Trends and cycles in Colombia's real GDP and fiscal deficit. Journal of Development Economics. Volume: 30, Issue 2, April 1989, Pages 325-343. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878 (89) 90007-2
[11]. Dartanto, T. (2013). Reducing Fuel Subsidies and the Implication on Fiscal Balance and Poverty in Indonesia: A Simulation Analysis. Journal Energy Policy Vol. 58, July 2013, Pages: 117-134. https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/ j.enpol.2013.02.040.
[12]. Depari M., Timotius. (2009). Analisis Keterbukaan Ekonomi terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Indonesia. Tesis. Penerbit: Universitas Sumatera Utara.
[13]. Gujarati, D. (2009). Basic Econometrics 4th Edition. Mc Graw-Hill.
[14]. Hidayat, Asrul. (2014). Analisis Ketahanan Fiskal Indonesia. Pemerhati Kebijakan Perpajakan, Jurnal Bisnis Indonesia. Vol. 5, No.2 (Nov 2014).
[15]. Icaza, V.E. (2018). Fiscal fatigue and debt sustainability: Empirical evidence from the Eurozone 1980-2013 Fatiga fiscaly sostenibilidad de la deuda: evidencia empirica de la Eurozona de 1980 a 2013. Cuadernos de Economia. Volume 41, Issue 115, January-April 2018, Pages 69-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cesjef.2017.03.002.
[16]. Jha, S., at al., (2014). Effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy: Evidence from developing Asia. Journal of Macroeconomics Vol. 40, June 2014, Pages 82-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.02.006.
[17]. Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. (2017). Rancangan Anggaran dan Pendapatan Negara 2017. Jakarta: Direktoral Jendral Anggaran.
[18]. Krugman, Paul, R and Obstfeld, Maurice, (2000). Ekonomi Internasional Teori dan Kebijakan. Jakarta: Rajawali Press.
[19]. Krugman, Paul, R. and Obstfeld, Maurice. (1994). Ekonomi Internasional Teori dan Kebijakan. Jakarta. PT. Raja Grafindo Persada.
[20]. Kuncoro, Haryo. (2011). Ketangguhan APBN dalam Pembayaran Utang. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. April 2011. 434-454. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v13i4.268.
[21]. Langenus, G. (2006). Fiscal Sustainability Indicators and Policy Design in the Face Ageing. Working Paper, National Bank of Belgium. https://dx.doi.org/ 10.2139/ssrn.1687700.
[22]. Mankiw, N. Gregory. (2009). Makro Ekonomi. Edisi Kelima, Penerbit: Erlangga Jakarta.
[23]. Mankiw, N. Gregory. (2000). Pengantar Ekonomi. Edisi Kedua, Jilid 2, Penerbit: Elangga Jakarta.
[24]. Marisa S., Ria. (2015) Analisis Keberlanjutan Fiskal di Indonesia. Jurnal Bina Ekonomi. Vol. 19 No.1.
[25]. Marks, S. V. (2004). Fiscal sustainability and solvency: Theory and recent experience in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 40(2), 227-242. https://doi.org/10.1080/0007491042000205295
[26]. Musgrave. (1980). Richard Estimating the Distribution of Tax Burdens: A Comparison of Different Approaches. Journal of Public Economics 13 155-182. https://works.bepress.com/don_fullerton/70.
[27]. Nopirin. (1992). Ekonomi Moneter, Penerbit: BPFE. Yogyakarta:
[28]. Pareshkumar, J.Patel, at al., (2014). Factor Affecting Cureency Exchange Rate, Economical Formulas and Prediction Model. International Journal of Application or Innovation in Engineering and Mangement (IJAIEM), Volume: 3 Issue 3, March 2014 ISSN 2319-4847. https://scholar.google.co.id
[29]. Pesaran, at al., (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied Econometris. https://doi.org/10.1002/ jae.616
[30]. Sargent, T. J and N. Wallace. (1981). Some Unpleasant Monetary Arithmetic, Quarterly Review (fall). Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, pp. 117.
[31]. Sarwono and Warjiyo (1998). Mencari Paradigma Baru Manajemen Moneter Dalam SIstem Nilai Tukar Fleksibel: Suaru Pemikiran untuk Penerapannya di Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan perbankan. Vol. 1, No. 1. https://doi.org/ 10.21098/ bemp.v1i1.158
[32]. Simorangkir, Iskandar and Adamanti J. (2010). Peran Stimulus Fiskal dan Pelonggaran Moneter pada Perekonomian Indonesia selama Krisis Finansial Global: Dengan Pendekatan Financial Computable General Equilibrium. Buleten Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. Vol. 3, No. 2. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v13i2.259.
[33]. Subagjo, Bambang. (2005). Defisit Anggaran, Utang Pemerintah dan Keberlanjutan Fiskal. Disertasi. Penerbit: Program Pascasarjana IPB.
[34]. Surjaningsih, at al., (2012). Dampak Kebijakan Fiskal Terhadap Output dan Inflasi. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, April 2012. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i4.365.
[35]. Tarequl, M, at al., (2016). Exchange rate regimes and fiscal discipline: The role of trade openness. International Review of Economics & Finance. Vol. 45, Pages 106-128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.04.013.
[36]. Taylor, L., at al., (2012). Fiscal deficits, economic growth and government debt in the USA. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Volume 36, Issue 1, Pages 189-204. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/ber041.
[37]. Tran, N. (2018). Debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment in emerging economies. Journal of Policy Modeling Vol. 40, Issue 2, March-April 2018, Pages 375-394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.01.011.
[38]. Wangke, Freddy. (2012). Dampak Kebijakan Subsidi Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak terhadap Kinerja Fiskal dan Pendapatan Nasional. Disertasi. Penerbit: Program Pascasarjana IPB.
[39]. Widarjono, Agus. (2006). Does Intergovernmental Transfers Cause Flypaper Effect on Local Spending? Economic Journal of Emerging Market ISSN: 2502-180x Http://www.journal.UII.ac.id/index.php/jep
[40]. Yadirichukwu. (2012). Analysis of tax formation and impact on economic growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Accounting and Financial.
[41]. Yeyati. E. L and F. Sturzenegger. (2007). A Balance-Sheet Approach to Fiscal Sustainability. Working Paper.
[42]. Zuhroh, I and Kaluge. (2007). Dampak Pertumbuhan Nilai Tukar Riil terhadap Pertumbuhan Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia (Suatu Aplikasi Model VAR) Journal of Indonesian Applied Economics Vol. 1 No. 1, 59-73. http://dx.doi.org/10.21776/ ub.jiae.2007.001.01.3

Abstract:
This study aims to analyze the effect of subsidies, inflation, exchange rates and BIR in the short and long term on fiscal sustainability in Indonesia. This study uses annual time series data from 1975-2017. To find out the long-term balance relationship between the research variables is carried out by long run Bounds test. While for short-term balance using ARDL estimation. The research results obtained in the long term subsidies and BIR have a positive and significant effect on fiscal deficits. While the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on fiscal deficits. In the short term, in the previous 3 years, subsidies and SBI have a positive and significant effect on fiscal deficits, while inflation has a negative and significant effect on the fiscal deficit. For the previous 2 years period, subsidies have a negative and significant effect on fiscal deficits. For the current period, subsidies are not significant for fiscal deficits, and inflation and BIR have a positive and significant effect on fiscal deficits. While the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the fiscal deficit. Likewise, the estimated results of long run Bounds Test subsidies, exchange rates and SBI have a balance relationship in the long run with fiscal sustainability. While inflation does not have a balance relationship in the long term fiscal sustainability. ARDL test results show subsidies, inflation, exchange rate, BIR has a balance in the short term with fiscal sustainability.

IJSSER is Member of