Commodity Price Shocks, Air Pollution, and Labour Markets in India:
Evidence from State-Month Variation

Krishiv Jain

doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.022

Title: Commodity Price Shocks, Air Pollution, and Labour Markets in India: Evidence from State-Month Variation
Authors: Krishiv Jain
Journal: International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research (IJSSER) ISSN: 2455-8834 Volume: 11 Issue: 9 Publication Date: September 2026 DOI: 10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.022
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Krishiv Jain The British School New Delhi
MLA 8 Jain, Krishiv. "Commodity Price Shocks, Air Pollution, and Labour Markets in India: Evidence from State-Month Variation." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 11, no. 9, Sept. 2026, pp. 4810-4827, doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.022. Accessed Sept. 2026. APA 6 Jain, K. (2026, September). Commodity Price Shocks, Air Pollution, and Labour Markets in India: Evidence from State-Month Variation. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 11(9), 4810-4827. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.022 Chicago Jain, Krishiv. "Commodity Price Shocks, Air Pollution, and Labour Markets in India: Evidence from State-Month Variation." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 11, no. 9 (September 2026), 4810-4827. Accessed September, 2026. https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.022.
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ABSTRACT: Geopolitical conflicts can generate commodity-price shocks that may affect household fuel choices, air pollution and labour-market outcomes. This paper examines this potential transmission mechanism in India using a state-month panel covering 36 states and union territories from January 2025 to June 2026. Fixed-effects regressions relate state-level LPG and oils-and-fats prices to ambient PM2.5, and PM2.5 to aggregate labour-market outcomes. The results provide little evidence of a systematic relationship between price levels and PM2.5. Oilsand-fats inflation is positively associated with PM2.5 in one specification, but the relationship is not robust, while LPG inflation is insignificant given limited state-specific price variation. PM2.5 is also not systematically associated with labour-market outcomes. Overall, the findings provide limited evidence for the proposed transmission mechanism at the state-month level.

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