Climate Risk, Firm Resilience, and Supply-Chain Network Propagation in the
S&P 500

Kian Jindal

doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.033

Title: Climate Risk, Firm Resilience, and Supply-Chain Network Propagation in the S&P 500
Authors: Kian Jindal
Journal: International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research (IJSSER) ISSN: 2455-8834 Volume: 11 Issue: 9 Publication Date: September 2026 DOI: 10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.033
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Kian Jindal Heritage International Xperiential School Pune
MLA 8 Jindal, Kian. "Climate Risk, Firm Resilience, and Supply-Chain Network Propagation in the S&P 500." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 11, no. 9, Sept. 2026, pp. 4997-5028, doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.033. Accessed Sept. 2026. APA 6 Jindal, K. (2026, September). Climate Risk, Firm Resilience, and Supply-Chain Network Propagation in the S&P 500. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 11(9), 4997-5028. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.033 Chicago Jindal, Kian. "Climate Risk, Firm Resilience, and Supply-Chain Network Propagation in the S&P 500." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 11, no. 9 (September 2026), 4997-5028. Accessed September, 2026. https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.033.
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ABSTRACT: Firm-level climate assessments can miss stress transmitted through material customers. This study asks whether incorporating publicly disclosed customer dependence changes scenariobased estimates of financial resilience for 503 S&P 500 firms. SEC financial statements and annual 10-K disclosures are combined with a study-authored, NGFS-inspired climate calibration for Current Policies and Net Zero 2050 in 2030, 2040, and 2050. Baseline resilience is measured with a continuous accounting-based Altman Z? proxy. Direct sector shocks are applied to selected accounting variables, and customer stress is transmitted upstream through 612 cleaned customer-to-supplier links. Under Current Policies, mean direct stress rises from 2.10 percent in 2030 to 10.37 percent in 2050; the principal disclosed-network contribution rises from 1.33 to 7.04 percentage points. Net Zero 2050 front-loads adjustment and produces lower modeled stress by 2050. However, a strict-extraction sensitivity retains only 27 edges and greatly reduces average network exposure, showing that conclusions depend on disclosure and parsing quality. A residual graph model also fails to outperform self-only and shuffled controls. The study therefore contributes an auditable screening framework, not a forecast of losses, default, or bankruptcy.

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