An Econometric Analysis in HK property market from the 1980 to 2029

Lie Chun Pong

doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.038

Title: An Econometric Analysis in HK property market from the 1980 to 2029
Authors: Lie Chun Pong
Journal: International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research (IJSSER) ISSN: 2455-8834 Volume: 11 Issue: 9 Publication Date: September 2026 DOI: 10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.038
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Lie Chun Pong Research Scholar
MLA 8 Pong, Lie Chun. "An Econometric Analysis in HK property market from the 1980 to 2029." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 11, no. 9, Sept. 2026, pp. 5108-5115, doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.038. Accessed Sept. 2026. APA 6 Pong, L. (2026, September). An Econometric Analysis in HK property market from the 1980 to 2029. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 11(9), 5108-5115. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.038 Chicago Pong, Lie Chun. "An Econometric Analysis in HK property market from the 1980 to 2029." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 11, no. 9 (September 2026), 5108-5115. Accessed September, 2026. https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i09.038.
References [1] . https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202603/27/P2026032600248.htm [2] . https://www.rvd.gov.hk/en/publications/property_market_statistics.html [3] . https://data.gov.hk/en-data/dataset/hk-rvd-tsinfo_rvd-property-market-statistics [4] . https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202603/27/P2026032600248.htm [5] . https://www.rvd.gov.hk/doc/en/HKPR2026_Preliminary_Findings_Eng.pdf [6] . https://www.rvd.gov.hk/doc/en/HKPR2026_Preliminary_Findings_Eng.pdf
ABSTRACT: This paper presents a quantitative analysis of Hong Kong’s private residential market using official time-series data on prices, stock, vacancy, take-up, and the recent completion pipeline. It argues that Hong Kong’s housing dynamics are jointly shaped by housing-cycle forces, urban land-supply rigidity, and asset-price transmission rather than by a single shortage. The latest official figures show that completions rose to 24,260 units in 2024, take-up was about 17,310 units, and the vacancy rate reached 4.5 percent. Forecast completions remained elevated from 2022 to 2025 and will gradually rebound in 2026 to 2029, after absorption of housing vacancies [1-6]. This indicates a transition toward inventory adjustment, absorption management, and, finally, an upswing in the housing price cycle in Hong Kong. Our paper aims to help the HK gov’t and policymakers make suitable decisions, which will therefore contribute to citizens and the public.

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