Impact of Ethanol Blending on Petroleum Prices and Crude Oil Import in
India: A Longitudinal Analysis (1980–2025)

Chirag Pal; Neharika Shrivastava

doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i10.012

Title: Impact of Ethanol Blending on Petroleum Prices and Crude Oil Import in India: A Longitudinal Analysis (1980–2025)
Authors: Chirag Pal and Neharika Shrivastava
Journal: International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research (IJSSER) ISSN: 2455-8834 Volume: 11 Issue: 10 Publication Date: October 2026 DOI: 10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i10.012
\|\| \|\|
Chirag Pal1 and Neharika Shrivastava2 1. Jnana Sweekar PU College, Bengaluru 2. Global R-hub
MLA 8 Pal, Chirag, and Neharika Shrivastava. "Impact of Ethanol Blending on Petroleum Prices and Crude Oil Import in India: A Longitudinal Analysis (1980–2025)." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 11, no. 10, Oct. 2026, pp. 5563-5579, doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i10.012. Accessed Oct. 2026. APA 6 Pal, C., & Shrivastava, N. (2026, October). Impact of Ethanol Blending on Petroleum Prices and Crude Oil Import in India: A Longitudinal Analysis (1980–2025). Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 11(10), 5563-5579. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i10.012 Chicago Pal, Chirag, and Neharika Shrivastava. "Impact of Ethanol Blending on Petroleum Prices and Crude Oil Import in India: A Longitudinal Analysis (1980–2025)." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 11, no. 10 (October 2026), 5563-5579. Accessed October, 2026. https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2026.v11i10.012.
References [1] . Ahmed, W., Usman, M., Shah, M. H., Abbas, M. M., Saleem, M. W., Kalam, M. A., & Mahmoud, O. (2022). A comparison of performance, emissions, and lube oil deterioration for Gasoline–Ethanol fuel. Processes, 10(5), 876. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr10050876 [2] . Azad, V. K., De, K., & Majumder, S. (2024). Ethanol blending and its environmental impacts: A case study of India. Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for Sustainable Development, 79, 101385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2024.101385 [3] . Bhardwaj, N., Mikloševi?, I., & Chauhan, N. (2026). India’s Macroeconomic Response to Global Shocks: Evidence from Oil Prices, Financial Crisis and COVID-19. Econometrics, 14(2), 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics14020026 [4] . Bueno, P. B., Espinosa, A. E., & Martos, L. P. (2025). Microeconometric analysis of book reading in unequal urban contexts. The case of Cartagena de Indias (Colombia). Cuadernos De Economía, 44(96), 1093–1123. https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v44n96.117999 [5] . Ça?atay, S., Ta?do?an, C., & Öze?, R. (2017). Analysing the impact of targeted bio-ethanol blending ratio in Turkey. Bio-based and Applied Economics, 6(2), 209–227. https://doi.org/10.13128/bae-16395 [6] . CEIC. (2025). India crude oil: imports. https://www.ceicdata.com/. https://www.ceicdata.com/ [7] . CEICdata.com. (2018, June 1). India crude oil: imports. Retrieved September 7, 2026, from https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/india/crude-oil-imports [8] . Chaiwat, P., King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Tangvitoontham, N., & Srinakharinwirot University. (2014). Petroleum’s price transmission and imported demand for crude oil in Thailand [Journal-article]. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 4(No. 3), 476–483. [9] . Chaturvedi, V., Ghosh, A., Garg, A., Avashia, V., Vishwanathan, S. S., Gupta, D., Sinha, N. K., Bhushan, C., Banerjee, S., Datt, D., Bansal, J., Pathak, M., Dhar, S., Singh, A. K., Khan, N., Rashmi, R. R., Agrawal, S., Agarwal, D., Singh, A., . . . Prasad, S. (2024). India’s pathway to net zero by 2070: status, challenges, and way forward. Environmental Research Letters, 19(11), 112501. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7749 [10] . DOLLAR TO RUPEE FORECAST 2026, 2027, 2028 - 2030. (n.d.). EFA Forecast. https://longforecast.com/usd-to-inr-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-indian-rupee [11] . Federal Bank of St.Louis. (2026, April). Balance of payments: Total net current account for India. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDBCAGDPBP6PT [12] . G_Admin. (2026, April 18). Ethanol Blending Policy India: Targets & demand ahead of 2030. Green Permits. https://www.greenpermits.in/09/ethanol-blending-targets-india-2025-2030-policy-demand/ [13] . Gupta, S., & Tiwary, P. (2026). The fiscal cost of holding down fuel prices in India after the Middle East War. In https://icrier.org/. [14] . Habanabakize, T. (2021). Determining the Household Consumption Expenditure’s Resilience towards Petrol Price, Disposable Income and Exchange Rate Volatilities. Economies, 9(2), 87. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9020087 [15] . Habanabakize, T., & Dickason-Koekemoer, Z. (2022). The Responsiveness of Liquid Fuel Price towards COVID-19 and Exchange Rate Fluctuations. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 12(6), 173–179. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.13479 [16] . Hasan, M., 1. (2026). Biofuels, green finance, and economic expansion: empirical evidence from the European Union. Financial Innovation, 2–30. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-025-00825-5 [17] . Hassan, A., North-West University, Meyer, D., & North-West University. (2020). ANALYSIS OF THE NON-LINEAR EFFECT OF PETROL PRICE CHANGES ON INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA. In INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND HUMANITY STUDIES: Vol. Vol 12 (Issue No 1, pp. 34–37). [18] . Hassani, A., Khatab, O. M. E. H., Aazami, A., & Kummer, S. (2026). Electromobility in developing countries: economic, infrastructural, and policy challenges. Future Transportation, 6(1), 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp6010009 [19] . https://www.team-bhp.com/. (2025, April). Ethanol blending is estimated to have saved Rs 1.2 lakh crore in foreign exchange over the past decade. https://www.team-bhp.com/news/india-increase-ethanol-blending-petrol-30-2030 [20] . India - Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average). (n.d.). https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/india/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF [21] . India 2030: GDP & Public Debt outlook \| India Debt Clock. (n.d.). https://www.indiadebtclock.in/projection-2030 [22] . Inflation rates in India. (2026, September 11). Worlddata.info. https://www.worlddata.info/asia/india/inflation-rates.php [23] . Ismail, M. M., & Zokm, G. M. E. (2025). Algae as keystone for blue economy: sustainability and challenges. Discover Sustainability, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00746-w [24] . Jain, N., Goli, S., Arjun Jana, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi, India, & International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India. (2025). Population age structural transition, demographic dividend and economic growth in India. HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES COMMUNICATIONS, 771. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05042-0 [25] . Jha, C. K., Stevanovi?, M., Das, P., Dietrich, J. P., Mosnier, A., & Popp, A. (2026). India’s biofuel blending policy presents serious trade-offs with land use, nitrogen emissions and food security. PLoS One, 21(7), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0351419 [26] . Kaur, S., & Kumar, A. (2025). Electric vehicles as a pathway to India’s sustainable development goals. Discover Sustainability, 7(1), 2–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-02643-w [27] . Kpodar, K., & Liu, B. (2022). The distributional implications of the impact of fuel price increases on inflation. Energy Economics, 108, 105909. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105909 [28] . Kumar, G., Padhy, R., Das, D., & Narayana, S. A. (2024). Ethanol Fuel Blending Program in India: Analysis of environmental, economic, and policy aspects using System Dynamics approach. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2024(1). https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/2002187 [29] . Lee, J. Y., Naylor, R. L., Figueroa, A. J., & Gorelick, S. M. (2020). Water-food-energy challenges in India: political economy of the sugar industry. Environmental Research Letters, 15(8), 084020. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9925 [30] . Mai, T. L., Tran, V. T., Phan, T. T., Nguyen, K. N., & Nguyen, Q. T. T. (2025). Impact of macro factors on country-level entrepreneurship: evidence from an empirical panel data study. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05034-0 [31] . ministryoftransport. (n.d.). Welcome to Data Analytics Portal. Retrieved September 7, 2026, from https://analytics.parivahan.gov.in/analytics/publicdashboard/vahan?lang=en [32] . Mwakabuli, N., & Kaaya, I. D. (2026). The impact of petrol price changes on economic welfare in Tanzania: a Time Series analysis (2000–2024). Eastern Africa Journal of Official Statistics, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.63933/eajos.2.1.2026.46 [33] . Nafisa, T. (2026). A 50-year analysis of the Indian economy: Interactions between GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates (1976-2025). Journal of Management Research and Analysis, 13(1), 88–92. https://doi.org/10.18231/j.jmra.16208.1773991513 [34] . Nakapreecha, N., Wangjiraniran, W., & Pongthanaisawan, J. (2026). Implications of the growing deployment of electric vehicles in Thailand and strategic adaptation of the fuel supply chain. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 16(2), 703–713. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.22142 [35] . Ogungbemi, A. T., & Dagbasi, M. (2025). The role of carbon removal in ratcheting India’s Net-Zero goal. Sustainability, 17(12), 5632. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125632 [36] . Okwu, A. T., Adelowokan, O. A., & Osisanwo, B. G. (2025). Foreign direct investments, institutional structure and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Discover Sustainability, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01761-1 [37] . Panigrahi, S., Kukreja, G., & Kumaraswamy, S. (2025). Forecasting stock market behavior in BRICS economies using artificial neural machine learning models. Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, 6(1), 70–89. https://doi.org/10.1108/jbsed-05-2025-0134 [38] . Retail Selling Price (RSP) of petrol, diesel and domestic LPG \| Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell \| Government of India. (n.d.). https://ppac.gov.in/retail-selling-price-rsp-of-petrol-diesel-and-domestic-lpg/price-build-up-of-petrol-and-diesel [39] . Roadmap for Ethanol blending in India: 2020-2025. (2021). In Report of the Expert Committee [Report]. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2021-06/EthanolBlendingInIndia_compressed.pdf [40] . Russo, C., Cirillo, V., Pollaro, N., Terribile, F., Chiodini, A., & Maggio, A. (2025). The global energy challenge: second-generation feedstocks on marginal lands for a sustainable biofuel production. Chemical and Biological Technologies in Agriculture, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40538-025-00729-7 [41] . Santos, G. K. S., De Farias Silva, C. E., Da Gama, B. M. V., Medeiros, J. A., Brulé, M., Da Silva, A. E., Almeida, R. M. R. G., Vich, D. V., Isemin, R., Guo, X., & De Souza Abud, A. K. (2026). Current Trends of Cellulosic Ethanol Technology from the Perspective of Industrial Development. Fermentation, 12(1), 48. https://doi.org/10.3390/fermentation12010048 [42] . Sarwal, R., Kumar, S., Mehta, A., Varadan, A., Kumar Singh, S., Ramakumar, S. S. V., & Mathai, R. (2021, June). ROADMAP FOR ETHANOL BLENDING IN INDIA 2020-25 Report of the Expert Committee. https://www.niti.gov.in/. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2021-06/EthanolBlendingInIndia_compressed.pdf [43] . Scott, D., & Scott, D. (2025, September 15). India’s transport transformation: Three policies to shape the road ahead. International Council on Clean Transportation. https://theicct.org/indias-transport-transformation-three-policies-to-shape-the-road-ahead-sep25/ [44] . Statista. (2026, August 11). Average inflation rate in India 1980-2031. https://www.statista.com/statistics/271322/inflation-rate-in-india/ [45] . Tyagi, A., Dadhich, A., & Gupta, M. K. (2025). Global perspective of energy sustainability in biofuel synthesis from agricultural waste. Discover Materials, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43939-025-00298-4 [46] . Vandy, J. F., Mohanty, S., & Mohapatra, S. (2025). Biotechnology industry as a catalyst for circular economy in India. Discover Sustainability, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01473-6 [47] . World Bank Open Data. (n.d.). World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.CAB.XOKA.CD?locations=IN [48] . World Development Indicators \| DataBank. (n.d.-a). https://databank.worldbank.org/country/IND/556d8fa6/Popular_countries [49] . World Development Indicators \| DataBank. (n.d.-b). https://databank.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/1ff4a498/Popular-Indicators [50] . Ye, Y., Hu, J., Zhang, Z., Zhong, W., Zhao, Z., & Zhang, J. (2023). Effect of different ratios of Gasoline-Ethanol blend fuels on combustion enhancement and emission reduction in electronic fuel injection engine. Polymers, 15(19), 3932. https://doi.org/10.3390/polym15193932 [51] . Zhong, J., & Khanna, M. (2022). Assessing the efficiency implications of renewable fuel policy design in the United States. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 1(3), 222–235. https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.23
ABSTRACT: Aims: To examine whether India's Ethanol Blending Programme (EBP) has influenced petrol prices and crude oil imports, and to project both at the 2030 target of 30% blending. Methodology: Annual data on petrol price, ethanol blending percentage, inflation rate, exchange rate, balance of payments as a percentage of GDP, GDP growth rate and crude oil imports were collected. The sources were the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, NITI Aayog, the World Bank and CEIC. The Shapiro–Wilk test showed the data were not normally distributed, so the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare petrol price and crude oil imports before and after the EBP. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller test showed the series were non-stationary. Multiple regression models were therefore estimated on first-differenced data, with the macroeconomic variables as controls. All analyses were carried out in JASP at the 5% significance level. Results: Both petrol price and crude oil imports showed statistically significant median differences between the pre- and post-EBP periods (p < 0.05). In the regression models, ethanol blending had a significant positive association with changes in petrol price (? = 1.53, p = 0.011). It had no significant association with changes in crude oil imports (? = 26.10, p = 0.316), for which inflation was the only significant predictor. At 30% blending in 2030, the models project a petrol price of about Rs 125.75 per litre and crude oil imports of about 5,547 thousand barrels per day. Conclusion: Ethanol blending supports energy diversification and environmental goals but, on its own, has not lowered fuel prices or India's dependence on crude oil imports. Complementary measures, such as passing cost savings on to consumers and investing in domestic energy sources, are needed alongside higher blending targets.

IJSSER is Member of