International Journal of Social Science & Economic Research
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Title:
RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF FERTILITY POLICY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CHINA

Authors:
Li Lin , Ru Zhang , Weijian Zhang , Yiru Wang , Hui Zhang

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Li Lin1 , Ru Zhang2 , Weijian Zhang2 , Yiru Wang2 , Hui Zhang2
1Business Administration Department of International Business School, Jinan University, Zhuhai, China
2Finance Department of International Business School, Jinan University, Zhuhai, China
Correspondence: Ru Zhang, Finance Department of International Business School, Jinan University, Qianshan Road 206#, Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, Post No. 519070, China.

MLA 8
Lin, Li, et al. "RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF FERTILITY POLICY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CHINA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 3, no. 6, June 2018, pp. 2550-2565, ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=174. Accessed 2018.
APA
Lin, L., Zhang, R., Zhang, W., Wang, Y., & Zhang, H. (2018, June). RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF FERTILITY POLICY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CHINA. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 3(6), 2550-2565. Retrieved from ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=174
Chicago
Lin, Li, Ru Zhang, Weijian Zhang, Yiru Wang, and Hui Zhang. "RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF FERTILITY POLICY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CHINA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 3, no. 6 (June 2018), 2550-2565. Accessed , 2018. ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=174.

References
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Abstract:
In order to optimize the population structure facing the country, many countries have introduced fertility policies, but the effects of the fertility policy on the population structure is abstract. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the fertility policy on population structure by using Bayesian theorem and Leslie model, especially the impact of population aging. Firstly, based on the historical data and the Bayesian formula, the policy adjustment multiplier is obtained to determine the fertility rate of each age under different fertility policies, thereby predicting the total population size and population structure under different fertility policies. Then, taking the China as an example, a comparative analysis of the total population and population structure of China under the "Universal Two-Child" policy and "separate" policy in 2020-2030. Finally, the results show that the influence of the birth policy on the population structure has a certain role, but it takes a long time to be effective and cannot fundamentally solve the population problem.