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Title: THE RELATION BETWEEN VOLATILITY IN THE GROWTH OF OUTPUT AND THE VOLATILITY IN GROWTH OF PRICE OF RICE PRODUCTION IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM ARCH/GARCH METHOD
Authors: Dr. Dipyaman Pal
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Dr. Dipyaman Pal Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Bethune College, 181, Bidhan Sarani, Kolkata-700006, West Bengal, India
MLA 8 Pal, Dr. Dipyaman. "THE RELATION BETWEEN VOLATILITY IN THE GROWTH OF OUTPUT AND THE VOLATILITY IN GROWTH OF PRICE OF RICE PRODUCTION IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM ARCH/GARCH METHOD." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 3, no. 8, Aug. 2018, pp. 4170-4180, ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=294. Accessed Aug. 2018. APA Pal, D. (2018, August). THE RELATION BETWEEN VOLATILITY IN THE GROWTH OF OUTPUT AND THE VOLATILITY IN GROWTH OF PRICE OF RICE PRODUCTION IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM ARCH/GARCH METHOD. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 3(8), 4170-4180. Retrieved from ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=294 Chicago Pal, Dr. Dipyaman. "THE RELATION BETWEEN VOLATILITY IN THE GROWTH OF OUTPUT AND THE VOLATILITY IN GROWTH OF PRICE OF RICE PRODUCTION IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM ARCH/GARCH METHOD." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 3, no. 8 (August 2018), 4170-4180. Accessed August, 2018. ijsser.org/more2018.php?id=294.
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Abstract: This paper estimates the extent of the growth of price volatility, the growth of output volatility and also analyses the relation between these two in case of rice for the four major rice producing states in India, namely Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, by using modern time series approach, for the period from 1963-64 to 2012-13. While the existing studies relating to the volatility analysis of Indian agriculture use conventional analysis of taking variance or coefficient of variation as the measures of volatility, the present study is based on the technique of measurement of volatility by using modern time series analysis. The distinguishing feature of the method is that the volatility or the volatility of the series is determined by the ARCH or GARCH method and the method of finding out the relation between the price volatility and the production volatility is much more dependent on time series econometric technique. The main findings of the paper is that one cannot find any relation between price volatility and production volatility for rice in case of three major rice producing states out of four. Only in case of Punjab there exists a both way relation between price and production volatility. Thus, in India for the majority of cases the extent of price volatility (output volatility) is determined by the factors other than output volatility (price volatility).

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