International Journal of Social Science & Economic Research
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Title:
ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIES, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES, BI RATES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA

Authors:
Yusri Hazmi, Nazamuddin, Raja Masbar, Syukriy Abdullah

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1Yusri Hazmi, 2Nazamuddin, 2Raja Masbar, 2Syukriy Abdullah
1. PhD Student, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia
2. Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia

MLA 8
Hazmi, Yusri, et al. "ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIES, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES, BI RATES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 4, no. 3, Mar. 2019, pp. 2049-2074, ijsser.org/more2019.php?id=151. Accessed Mar. 2019.
APA
Hazmi, Y., Nazamuddin, Masbar, R., & Abdullah, S. (2019, March). ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIES, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES, BI RATES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 4(3), 2049-2074. Retrieved from ijsser.org/more2019.php?id=151
Chicago
Hazmi, Yusri, Nazamuddin, Raja Masbar, and Syukriy Abdullah. "ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIES, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES, BI RATES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 4, no. 3 (March 2019), 2049-2074. Accessed March, 2019. ijsser.org/more2019.php?id=151.

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Abstract:
This study aims to analyze the effect of subsidies, inflation, exchange rates and BIR in the short and long term on fiscal sustainability in Indonesia. This study uses annual time series data from 1975-2017. To find out the long-term balance relationship between the research variables is carried out by long run Bounds test. While for short-term balance using ARDL estimation. The research results obtained in the long term subsidies and BIR have a positive and significant effect on fiscal deficits. While the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on fiscal deficits. In the short term, in the previous 3 years, subsidies and SBI have a positive and significant effect on fiscal deficits, while inflation has a negative and significant effect on the fiscal deficit. For the previous 2 years period, subsidies have a negative and significant effect on fiscal deficits. For the current period, subsidies are not significant for fiscal deficits, and inflation and BIR have a positive and significant effect on fiscal deficits. While the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the fiscal deficit. Likewise, the estimated results of long run Bounds Test subsidies, exchange rates and SBI have a balance relationship in the long run with fiscal sustainability. While inflation does not have a balance relationship in the long term fiscal sustainability. ARDL test results show subsidies, inflation, exchange rate, BIR has a balance in the short term with fiscal sustainability.