International Journal of Social Science & Economic Research
Submit Paper

Title:
IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ON FOOD INFLATION AND STOCK MARKETS IN ASIAN ECONOMIES: WITH REFERENCE TO INDIA, CHINA, JAPAN AND THAILAND

Authors:
Ambrita Mishra , Dr Amritkant Mishra and Dr Ajit Kumar Dash

|| ||

Ambrita Mishra1 , Dr Amritkant Mishra2 and Dr Ajit Kumar Dash3
1. Student BA Economics, Department of Economics, Birla Global University, Bhubaneswar India
1,2. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Birla Global University, Bhubaneswar India

MLA 8
Mishra, Ambrita, et al. "IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ON FOOD INFLATION AND STOCK MARKETS IN ASIAN ECONOMIES: WITH REFERENCE TO INDIA, CHINA, JAPAN AND THAILAND." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 8, no. 4, May 2023, pp. 1020-1044, doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2023.v08i05.008. Accessed May 2023.
APA 6
Mishra, A., Mishra, D., & Dash, D. (2023, May). IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ON FOOD INFLATION AND STOCK MARKETS IN ASIAN ECONOMIES: WITH REFERENCE TO INDIA, CHINA, JAPAN AND THAILAND. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 8(4), 1020-1044. doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2023.v08i05.008
Chicago
Mishra, Ambrita, Dr Amritkant Mishra, and Dr Ajit Kumar Dash. "IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ON FOOD INFLATION AND STOCK MARKETS IN ASIAN ECONOMIES: WITH REFERENCE TO INDIA, CHINA, JAPAN AND THAILAND." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 8, no. 4 (May 2023), 1020-1044. Accessed May, 2023. doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2023.v08i05.008.

References

[1]. Binns, C., & Low, W. Y. (2022). Peace, war, and public health. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 34(5), 481-482. https://doi.org/10.1177/10105395221109066
[2]. FP staff (2023, April 14). Russia-Ukraine War: Kyiv's GDP fell by 29.1% in 2022, figures slightly better than govt forecast. Firstpost. https://www.firstpost.com/world/russia-ukraine-war-kyivs-gdp-fell-by-29-1-in-2022- figures-slightly-better-than-govt-forecast-12453362.html
[3]. Mofid, K. (1990). The economic consequences of the Gulf War. Taylor & Francis. http://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/24104
[4]. ITYINTHEWORLD, T. Policy options to address price volatility and high prices. FAO (2011) https://www.fao.org/3/i2330e/i2330e05.pdf
[5]. Dawe, D., & Morales-Opazo, C. (2009). How Much Did Developing Country Domestic Staple Food Prices Increase During the World Food Crisis?: How Much Have They Declined?. Agricultural Development Economics Division, The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/3/ak421e/ak421e.pdf
[6]. Ivanic, M., Martin, W., & Zaman, H. (2012). Estimating the short-run poverty impacts of the 2010–11 surge in food prices. World Development, 40(11), 2302-2317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.03.024
[7]. Von Braun, J. (2008). Food and financial crises: Implications for agriculture and the poor (Vol. 20). Intl Food Policy Res Inst. http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/0896295346
[8]. Olbrys, J. (2021). The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2009: A Survey. Available at SSRN 3872477. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3872477
[9]. Kettell, S. (2023, April 4). oil crisis. Britannica https://www.britannica.com/topic/oil- crisis
[10]. Leigh, A., Wolfers, J., & Zitzewitz, E. (2003). What do financial markets think of war in Iraq?. https://ssrn.com/abstract=391123
[11]. Chen, A. H., & Siems, T. F. (2004). The effects of terrorism on global capital markets. European journal of political economy, 20(2), 349-366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2003.12.005
[12]. Times of India (2023, February 24). One year of Russia-Ukraine war: How the conflict impacted Indian economy. Times of India. https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india- business/one-year-of-russia-ukraine-war-how-the-conflict-impacted-indian- economy/articleshow/98214568.cms
[13]. Shah, S. N. A., Majeed, G., Ali, R. A., & Hussain, T. (2022). Russia-Ukraine crisis and its impact on south asia. Review of Applied Management and Social Sciences, 5(2), 141-148.https://doi.org/10.47067/ramss.v5i2.219
[14]. Sohag, K., Islam, M. M., Tomas Žikovi?, I., & Mansour, H. (2022). Food inflation and geopolitical risks: analyzing European regions amid the Russia-Ukraine war. British Food Journal. https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-09-2022-0793
[15]. Abay, K. A., Breisinger, C., Glauber, J. W., Kurdi, S., Laborde Debucquet, D., & Siddig,
[16]. K. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine crisis: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses (Vol. 39). Intl Food Policy Res Inst. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100675
[17]. Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2022). Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on global food security: towards more sustainable and resilient food systems?. Foods, 11(15), 2301. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11152301
[18]. Jagtap, S., Trollman, H., Trollman, F., Garcia-Garcia, G., Parra-López, C., Duong, L.,... & Afy-Shararah, M. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine conflict: Its implications for the global food supply chains. Foods, 11(14), 2098. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11142098
[19]. Hellegers, P. (2022). Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine. Food Security, 14(6), 1503-1510. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-022- 01306-8
[20]. Nasir, M. A., Nugroho, A. D., & Lakner, Z. (2022). Impact of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict on Global Food Crops. Foods, 11(19), 2979. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11192979
[21]. Ozili, P. K. (2022). Global economic consequence of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Available at SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4064770
[22]. Mishra, A (2022) “Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Crude Oil on Food Prices in India: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Investigation” Indian Journal of Economics and Development(IJED), ISSN no 2322-0430. Vol 18, issue 03, https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED/22022
[23]. Mishra, A (2021) “Food Commodity Price Volatility and Its Nexus with Monetary Factor: An Empirical Analysis of India”. International Journal of Management Practice (IJMP) ISSN no 1741-8143. Vol. 14, No. 1, pp- 88-106, http://www.inderscience.com/offer.php?id=111748
[24]. Mishra, A (2020) “Tracking the Transmission Channels of Fiscal De?cit and Food In?ation Linkages: A Structural VAR Approach” Indian Journal of Economics and Development (IJED), ISSN no 2322-0430. Vol 16, issue 02, pp- 165-172, https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED/19129
[25]. Mishra, A (2019) "Crude Oil, Stock Market, and Foreign Exchange Return Volatility and Spillover: a GARCH DCC analysis of Indian and Japanese Financial Market". International Journal of Business Innovation and Research (IJBIR), ISSN no 1751- 0260. Inderscience publication. Vol 10, issue 03, pp- 25-46. https://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJBIR.2019.101687
[26]. Mishra, A (2019a) “Foreign Exchange, Gold, and Real Estate Markets in India: An Analysis of Return Volatility and Transmission”. Indian Journal of Finance, Vol 13, issue 07, pp-50-64. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf%2F2019%2Fv13i7%2F145535
[27]. Mishra, A (2020a). “Quest of Nexus between Inflation and Economic Development: Evidence from Asian Countries” International Journal of Happiness and Development (IJHD) ISSN no 2049-2804. Vol. 6, No. 2, pp- 95-112. https://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=111201 . .
[28]. Sviatko, M. Why Inflation Is Poised to Remain ASEAN’s Main Economic Concern in 2023.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368645463_Why_Inflation_Is_Poised_to_R emain_ASEAN's_Main_Economic_Concern_in_2023
[29]. Aliu, F., Ku?era, J., & Hašková, S. (2023). Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil. Forecasting, 5(1), 351-373. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast5010019
[30]. Saridakis, G., Alexiou, C., Hosein, R., & Satnarine-Singh, N. (2022). Hegemonic Sanctions and Global Economic Ramifications in the Context of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: A Commentary. Available at SSRN 4176209. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4176209
[31]. Bhatta, A. (2022). The Ukraine war and its food security implications in Nepal (Vol. 22). Intl Food Policy Res Inst. https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/resapn/22.html
[32]. Bin-Nashwan, S. A., Hassan, M. K., & Muneeza, A. (2022). Russia–Ukraine conflict: 2030 Agenda for SDGs hangs in the balance. International Journal of Ethics and Systems, (ahead-of-print). https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOES-06-2022-0136
[33]. Orhan, E. (2022). The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on global trade. Journal of International Trade, Logistics and Law, 8(1), 141-146. http://jital.org/index.php/jital/article/view/277
[34]. Arndt, C., Diao, X., Dorosh, P., Pauw, K., & Thurlow, J. (2023). The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries. Global Food Security, 36, 100680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100680
[35]. von Cramon-Taubadel, S. (2022). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine–implications for grain markets and food security. Ger. J. Agric. Econ, 71, 1-13. https://www.german- economic-team.com/en/publication/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-implications-for- grain-markets-and-food-security-2/
[36]. Rabbi, M. F., Ben Hassen, T., El Bilali, H., Raheem, D., & Raposo, A. (2023). Food Security Challenges in Europe in the Context of the Prolonged Russian–Ukrainian Conflict. Sustainability, 15(6), 4745. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064745
[37]. Skorokhod, Y., Serbina, N., Sapsai, A., & Tsyrfa, I. (2023). Political commentary on world hunger triggered by war in Ukraine. International Journal of Environmental Studies, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2023.2177425
[38]. Lakhal, N. (2022). Global food security is threatened by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Journal of Studies in Economics and Management Volume, 5(02), 797. https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/article/206464
[39]. Khetsoongnoen (2022). THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ON THAILAND’S ECONOMY IN 2022. Interdisciplinary Sripatum Chonburi Journal (ISCJ), 8(2), 113-123. https://so04.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ISCJ/article/view/258266
[40]. Guan, Y., Yan, J., Shan, Y., Zhou, Y., Hang, Y., Li, R., ... & Hubacek, K. (2023). Burden of the global energy price crisis on households. Nature Energy, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01209-8
[41]. Al-Saidi, M. (2023). Caught off guard and beaten: The Ukraine war and food security in the Middle East. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnut.2023.983346
[42]. Yousaf, I., Patel, R., & Yarovaya, L. (2022). The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 35, 100723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100723
[43]. Li, Y., M Alshater, M., & Yoon, S. M. (2022). The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global financial markets. Available at SSRN 4108325. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4108325

ABSTRACT:
The current geopolitical risk posed by the Russia-Ukraine war has significant implications on the stock markets and the commodities markets of several countries. Using monthly data from October 2020 to the present time period, we analyse the impact of Russia-Ukraine crisis on food inflation and stock market return volatility in the context of Asian countries, namely, India, China, Japan and Thailand with the help of regression analysis based on the OLS technique. Our main findings show us the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the food inflation to be visible in China and Japan whereas the war's effect on the stock markets of all the countries selected is shown to be insignificant. We observe the highest and lowest monthly food inflation in China, the highest monthly stock return volatility in Thailand and the lowest monthly stock return volatility in Japan among the selected countries. For the case of India, the war doesn't have much effect on its food inflation and stock market return volatility. We suggest reducing food import dependency by strengthening domestic production and going for alternative food suppliers so as to not be affected by the international food prices that are subjected to the turmoil of war. It is imperative to re-diversify portfolios based on the volatility trend of stock market returns in order to shield oneself from the perils of stock market volatility caused by wars.

IJSSER is Member of